The Chicago Bears held off a late surge from the Pittsburgh Steelers to win 31-28 on Sunday, November 23, 2025, at Soldier Field in Chicago. The victory wasn’t just another win—it was a statement. The Bears, now 8-3, covered the -2.5 point spread as favored home team, and the game’s 59 total points smashed the 46.5-point over/under. For fans who bet on the over? They cashed big. For those who doubted Chicago’s ability to close out tight games? They had to eat crow.
How the Game Unfolded
The first half was a back-and-forth battle. The Steelers struck early with a 7-0 lead, then exploded for 14 more points in the second quarter—thanks to a 42-yard pick-six and a quick-strike touchdown pass from Kenny Pickett. But the Bears answered with a methodical drive capped by a 12-yard scramble from Caleb Williams, who finished 21-of-30 for 247 yards and two touchdowns. His poise under pressure was the difference. Chicago’s defense, which entered the game leading the NFL with 15 takeaways, forced two crucial turnovers in the second half: a fumble recovery by linebacker Dalton Kincaid and an interception by safety Jaquan Brisker that snuffed out a Steelers red-zone drive.
By the fourth quarter, it was 28-24 Steelers. Then came the turning point: a 17-yard catch-and-run by D’Andre Swift on 3rd-and-12, followed by a 3-yard plunge from Kyle Monangai to put the Bears ahead 31-28 with 4:12 left. Pittsburgh had one last chance. But on 4th-and-8 from their own 40, Pickett’s sideline throw was batted down by cornerback Jaylon Johnson. Game over.
Why the Bears Kept Winning
Chicago’s consistency as a home favorite has been remarkable. They’ve now covered the spread in five straight games when favored by four points or fewer. Stat Salt nailed it: “Chicago can handle tight lines in front of their own crowd.” That’s not luck—it’s culture. The Bears’ offensive line has improved dramatically since Week 5, giving Williams time to read defenses. And their defense? It’s not just about takeaways. It’s about discipline. They allowed just 12 points in the second half this game, holding Pittsburgh to 3-of-12 on third downs.
Williams, the 2024 Rookie of the Year, is playing like a franchise quarterback. He’s thrown for 2,312 yards and 13 touchdowns this season with just four interceptions. And Swift? He’s averaging 5.8 yards per carry. Together, they form the most balanced offensive duo in the NFC North.
The Steelers’ Struggles on the Road
Pittsburgh entered this game 5-1 to the over in their last six games against NFC North teams. That trend held true—this game was a shootout. But their road record? A mess. They’re now 2-3 away from Heinz Field, and they’ve lost three straight road games against teams with winning records. Their defense, which looked sharp against Cincinnati two weeks ago, gave up 31 points and 412 total yards. The secondary is thin. Safety Terrell Edmunds is out with a hamstring injury, and rookie cornerback Keion White was burned twice for first downs.
And then there’s the betting trend no one wanted to admit: the Steelers are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games as road underdogs. That’s not coincidence. It’s a pattern. They play hard, sure—but they don’t execute under pressure. Especially on the road.
Betting Trends That Mattered
Pre-game, most analysts leaned toward the Bears -2.5. FOX Sports’ Data Skrive gave Chicago a 60.8% implied win probability. Pickswise warned: “Four of the Bears’ last five home games stayed under the total.” But they didn’t account for Pittsburgh’s offensive style. The Steelers average 26.8 points per game on the road—and they love to throw. When you combine that with Chicago’s high-octane offense, an under was never realistic.
Stat Salt’s “Over 46 (3 Units)” recommendation turned out to be a goldmine. The final total? 59 points. That’s the highest-scoring Bears-Steelers game since 2017. Even ESPN’s early odds page, which listed the game time as 10:00 AM ET (a typo—kickoff was 1:00 PM), got the result right. Final score: Bears 31, Steelers 28.
What This Means for the Playoffs
Chicago’s win puts them in sole possession of first place in the NFC North. They’re now one game ahead of Detroit and Green Bay. With three games left—including a home date against the Packers—they’re looking like a legitimate playoff contender. And if Williams keeps playing like this, they might not need a bye week to make noise in January.
For Pittsburgh? They’re clinging to a wild-card spot. With a tough stretch ahead—road games against Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore—they’ll need to win at least three of their last four just to stay relevant. The defense has to fix itself. Fast.
Historical Context: Bears vs. Steelers
This was the 29th meeting between the two franchises. Chicago leads the all-time series 15-13, but the last four matchups have all gone to the Bears—each by a touchdown or less. And in each of those four games, Chicago covered the spread. That’s not just momentum. That’s psychological dominance. The Steelers haven’t beaten the Bears since 2021, when they won 29-27 in Pittsburgh. Since then, the Bears have outscored them 96-62.
Even the weather played a role. It was 41°F and windy in Chicago—perfect for a ground game. Yet the Bears threw 38 times. That’s confidence. That’s growth.
Frequently Asked Questions
How did Caleb Williams perform in the Bears’ 31-28 win over the Steelers?
Caleb Williams threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-30 passing, adding 42 rushing yards and a crucial 12-yard scramble for a touchdown. He avoided turnovers and led four scoring drives in the second half, including the game-winning 80-yard march in the final minutes. His passer rating was 108.4—the highest of his rookie season.
Why did the over 46.5 points hit so hard in this game?
The Steelers average 26.8 points on the road and have gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 games against NFC North teams. Meanwhile, the Bears’ offense is top-5 in yards per drive, and their defense gives up 25.4 points per game. When you combine Pittsburgh’s aggressive passing with Chicago’s ability to respond with quick scores, the over was inevitable. Final total: 59 points.
Has Chicago’s defense really improved this season?
Yes. The Bears lead the NFL with 15 takeaways through 11 games, up from just 9 all of last season. Their pass rush has added 11 sacks in the last three weeks, and they’ve held three of their last four opponents under 20 points. Key additions like linebacker Dalton Kincaid and safety Jaquan Brisker have turned a once-porous unit into a top-5 defense.
What’s the significance of the Bears covering the -2.5 spread?
Covering the spread in five straight games as home favorites under four points shows remarkable consistency under pressure. It’s rare for a team to handle tight lines so well, especially with a young QB. This win marks their sixth cover in 10 games this season, and it reinforces their reputation as a team that doesn’t panic when the stakes rise.
Are the Steelers still in playoff contention after this loss?
Technically, yes—but it’s fading fast. At 6-5, they’re one game behind the Bengals and Ravens for the final AFC wild-card spot. With road games against Buffalo, Kansas City, and Baltimore left, they’ll need to win at least three of their final four just to stay alive. Their defense’s inability to stop big plays, especially in the second half, is becoming a season-ending concern.
What’s next for the Bears and Steelers?
The Bears host the Green Bay Packers next Sunday in a divisional showdown that could decide the NFC North. The Steelers travel to Buffalo to face Josh Allen and the Bills—a matchup that will test their fragile defense. If Pittsburgh loses again, their playoff hopes could be all but over by Thanksgiving week.
